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Bayesian Weibull Analysis vs. Weibayes
The
Bayesian Weibull analysis capabilities built into BRASS
should not be confused the Weibayes method. While both BRASS and Weibayes
allow recognize that the past may be an indicator of the future, the Bayesian
Weibull analysis features provided by BRASS far exceed the intent and
capability of those of Weibayes.
BRASS does not require you to pick a 'best' number for the shape parameter:
The idea behind Weibayes is to incorporate engineering knowledge regarding
the aging behavior of your existing products (improving, constant, deteriorating
reliability behavior) in the analysis of the product being tested. The
engineering knowledge takes the form of a single number, namely an estimated
value for the Weibull shape parameter.
The fully Bayesian analysis procedures in BRASS consider the shape parameter
to be uncertain, much like the scale parameter. Consequently, if you are
not sure about the value of the shape parameter, you can specify the knowledge
about the aging behavior in the form of an uncertainty distribution. Doing
so prevents you from having to specify numbers that imply too much precision.
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The fully Bayesian analysis procedures in BRASS consider the
statistical uncertainty about both the shape and the scale parameters,
which is shown here in the form of a joint density distribution.
BRASS automatically converts these distributions into estimates
for the relevant reliability measures as a function of time, plus
the corresponding uncertainty bounds.
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BRASS does not require you to 'pick' a number for the shape parameter:
Rather than forcing you to specify a number or distribution for the
shape parameter, BRASS allows you to directly incorporate the data obtained
from your earlier tests into the analysis, and simultaneously analyze
the old and the new data, assuming that the shape factor for both data
sets are the same, while the scale parameters are independent.
BRASS allows you to use information about the scale parameter as well:
The reliability adjustment model feature in BRASS allows you to not
just link the shape parameters of the analyses, but also has the option
to propagate information about the scale parameter from one product to
another. As an example, you could link the two reliability models based
on the assumption that the failure rates are 'approximately the same',
which could for instance be translated to a failure rate adjustment by
a factor somewhere between 0.8 and 1.3. Similarly, you could model expected
increases or reductions in the failure rate, or alternatively perform
time-based adjustments.
In summary, since the analysis procedures in BRASS are actually Bayesian,
far more powerful reliability models can be constructed, that help you
make the most of your reliability data, without having to resort to unrealistically
strong assumptions about the parameters in your model.
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